构建网络中心战的网络评估模型

为使网络化的部队能在内在的网络性能和外在的决策行动性能之间建立联系,建立了一系列的定量模型,将内在的网络性能和观察-确定-决策-行动(Observe-Orient-Decide-Act:OODA)环之间直接相关,为评估战场上的信息和网络能力建立了合适的模型。该模型也为网络中心战行动的内在和外在关系建立形式化关联迈出了第一步。     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

野战环境下弹药贮存寿命评估

简述了进行弹药野战环境贮存可靠性试验的试验场地、试验样本量确定方法和试验结果,分析探讨了弹药野战环境贮存可靠性试验数据处理方法,给出了在一定置信度下弹药贮存寿命。     

熙宁变法和元祐诗坛

文章从宋代元右时期的几位代表诗人的创作风格和处世心态两方面入手,阐述了元右诗坛和熙宁变法之间具有统一性与分离性的特点,统一性在于二者之间的变革精神,分离性表现为两点:一是,多元诗风对一元学术风气的背离;二是,以佛老为主导的处世思想对一元主导的荆公新儒学的背离.诗坛与政坛在新变上的统一性为元右诗坛的繁荣提供了宝贵的契机,而二者之间的分离性则让这种繁荣变成了现实.     

基于有限元分析的车辆驱动桥壳台架加速疲劳试验

针对开展驱动桥壳台架加速疲劳试验对删减载荷谱的实际需求,提出了基于有限元虚拟台架试验获得删减载荷谱的试验与分析方法.在有限元仿真分析环境下对某军用特种车辆驱动桥壳进行静强度试验、疲劳寿命预测、应变历程提取以及时间关联损伤分析等工作,得到了用于加速台架试验的删减载荷谱.台架试验表明,使用该方法获得的删减载荷谱能够在准确反映桥壳所受到的损伤同时,大幅缩短台架试验时间,证明了本文所述方法的实用价值.     

Stage life testing

In progressive censoring, items are removed at certain times during the life test. Commonly, it is assumed that the removed items are used for further testing. In order to take into account information about these additional testing in inferential procedures, we propose a two‐step model of stage life testing with one fixed stage‐change time which incorporates information about both the removed items (further tested under different conditions) and those remaining in the current life test. We show that some marginal distributions in our model correspond either to progressive censoring with a fixed censoring time or to a simple‐step stress model. Furthermore, assuming a cumulative exposure model, we establish exact inferential results for the distribution parameters when the lifetimes are exponentially distributed. An extension to Weibull distributed lifetimes is also discussed.     

复杂战争系统建模与仿真需求及ABMS方法

复杂战争系统与一般的物理系统相比,建模与仿真条件、要求与过程有着明显差异。在论述战争系统及其复杂性的基础上,分析了复杂战争系统一般的建模与仿真方法及存在的问题,重点分析研究了基于Agent的建模与仿真(ABMS)方法。将ABMS方法应用于信息化战场多传感器仿真演示,验证了其对复杂战争系统建模与仿真的可行性与有效性。     

大型战略预警雷达维修保障的特点与新思路

随着我国战略预警体系的构建,传统维修保障方法已显露出了一些缺陷,并成为制约部队战斗力提升的重要因素。文章分析了大型战略预警雷达装备的特点,总结维修保障所面临的困难与挑战,提出提升维修保障能力的新思路,并指出当前需着力解决的问题。文章立足部队当前装备维修保障现状,着眼大型战略预警雷达维修保障能力提升,旨在为部队进一步提升维修保障能力提供思路和参考依据。     

Study on performance degradation and failure analysis of machine gun barrel

An increase in the use of the gun barrel will cause wear of the inner wall, which reduces the muzzle velocity and the spin rate of the projectile. The off-bore flight attitude and trajectory of the projectile also change, affecting the shooting power and the accuracy. Exterior ballistic data of a high-speed spinning projectile are required to study the performance change. Therefore, based on the barrel's accelerated life test, the whole process of projectile shooting is reproduced using numerical simulation technology, and key information on the ballistic performance change at each shooting stage are acquired. Studies have shown that in the later stages of barrel shooting, the accuracy of shooting has not decreased significantly. However, it is found that the angle of attack of the projectile increases as the wear of the barrel increases. The maximum angle of attack reaches 0.106 rad when the number of shots reaches 4300. Meanwhile, elliptical bullet hole has appeared on the target at this shooting stage. Through combining external ballistic theory with simulation results, the primary reason of this phenomenon is found to be a significant decrease in the muzzle spin rate of the projectile. At the end of the barrel life, the projectile muzzle spin rate is 57.5% lower than that of a barrel without wear.     

921A 钢结构低周疲劳裂纹扩展特性试验研究

采用预制缺口的平板和加筋板结构试样,对 921A 钢进行了拉伸疲劳载荷作用下的低周疲劳试验得到了拉伸疲劳载荷作用下舰体结构破口裂纹扩展规律,提出了破损舰体结构在疲劳载荷作用下裂纹开裂和后续扩展的判据.该试验结果可直接用于分析和预报破损舰船结构在波浪中航行时的裂纹扩展情况,并为破损舰船的剩余疲劳寿命预报奠定了基础.